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Translate global change into borrower exposure
External shocks reach local portfolios through fuel and input costs, import dependence, export demand, currency movement, inventory cycles and financing conditions. Exposure differs by sector and business model.
Use scenarios rather than precise forecasts
Institutions do not need to predict one exact outcome. Build a small set of plausible scenarios and identify which borrower segments would experience the greatest cash-flow pressure in each.
Connect monitoring to credit and collections
When an external factor changes materially, review affected segments, refresh assumptions and adjust follow-up intensity. The objective is earlier understanding, not automatic restriction of credit.
World Bank — Global Economic Prospects, June 2026
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